Keep 'Em Up? Send 'Em Down? (Part 1 - Western Conference)

So the 2011-2012 season is beginning in the NHL, with a fresh crop of rookies signed and looking to impress in their NHL debut. However there is always a risk associated with keeping rookies around with the big team, rush their development and you might stagnate their progress, send them down and they might plateau. Here is a look at the top underagers fighting for a spot this season.

Devante Smith-Pelly - Anaheim Ducks 

If you're asking, who? You aren't alone, not many people know about this Scarborough, Ontario native, but he has quietly earned his place to start the year with the Ducks. The 19 year old plays like a power forward despite his size, mostly due to his great strength and thick build, and appears to have a shot at the bottom 6 for the Anaheim Ducks.  

Prediction: Sent back to OHL. Smith-Pelly would benefit from another year rounding out his game in Mississauga, where he would play top line minutes and be a likely CHL All Star yet again. His potential may be more than just a hard working bottom 6er, but if kept in Anaheim, he might top out at just that.

Brandon Saad - Chicago Blackhawks

A once highly touted power forward prospect, Brandon Saad slipped into the second round in the 2011 Draft, much to the delight of the Chicago Blackhawks. The 6'2" 200+ lb forward will be starting the regular season with the Blackhawks, surprising even the coaching staff. Saad plays a gritty scoring game, and is a very powerful skater with a touch in front of the net. After his impressive pre-season, it is not surprise that he is getting a shot at starting the year with Chicago.


Prediction: Sent back to Saginaw. Saad shows signs of a top end power forward, but needs to learn to better use his size. He has shown very good hockey sense this pre-season, but with another year of seasoning and learning to dominate physically, he should be ready for a prominent role next season, possibly even in the top 6.

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Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado Avalanche

Gabriel Landeskog has all the intangibles to be an NHL Captain one day, of course you've been hearing that since Steve Spott compared him to new LA King Mike Richards. He has earned a spot with the Colorado Avalanche for this coming season, and has looked right at home against NHL opponents. Landeskog looked like a man amongst boys at the combine, so it should be no surprise that the 2nd Overall pick is starting the regular season with the Avalanche.

Prediction: Stays with Colorado. This certainly seems like a no-brainer. Some will question if Landeskog has the elite offensive skills to be a top line player, however his hard release, along with his smooth skating and great vision beg to differ. Regardless, Landeskog is very capable of playing a 200 foot game in any role, so keeping him up is the best move.

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Ryan Johansen - Columbus Blue Jackets

The 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft has made the Jackets out of camp after a great junior year in which he was an integral part of the Canadian World Junior Squad. Johansen also put up an impressive 92 points in 63 games with the Portland Winterhawks, as well as 28 in 21 playoff games. Ryan Johansen often draws comparisons to players like Joe Thornton, and while that may be selling him high, their styles certainly overlap. Johansen is a patient and poised player at both ends of the rink, with a nack for where the puck is going in the offensive zone, as well as where it needs to be.

Prediction: Before the Carter trade, Keep him up, undoubtedly. After? It's anyone's guess. The Blue Jackets aren't truly in dire need of a Center anymore, with that 1C spot filled they have Brassard, Vermette, Umberger and even Prospal who can play center. Watch the 9 games, for Johansen to make the team he will need to be an impact player, and he will need to be physical. Columbus has no need to rush Johansen to the NHL, so to put it simply, if he's ready, he'll stay. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton Oilers

You all know the name, this years 1st overall pick has earned the right to start the year with the Oilers, largely due to a very good pre-season in which he racked up 6 points in 5 games. RNH is the latest to be added to a young, high powered offensive core, and has shown solid chemistry with last years 1st overall, Taylor Hall. With excellent vision and equally impressive anticipation, Nugent-Hopkins is expected to be the top center on the Oilers for years to come.

Prediction: Stays with the Oilers. He may be undersized, although he has added weight, but the vision and hockey sense that RNH possesses is elite. Another year in the WHL would be redundant, with WJC's being the only true benefit. Nugent-Hopkins has nothing left to prove in the WHL, and the next step in his development will begin this season with the Edmonton Oilers.

Never Woulda Guessed It! 2011's Breakout Seasons

Now that the NHL season is winding down, and teams are battling for those last few playoff spots, I think it's very interesting to stop and take a look at who has broken out and surpassed the expectations of everyone. With no further ado, let's start with. . . .

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Claude Giroux F, Philadelphia Flyers

Early in the season it was no secret that Claude Giroux was producing. Starting his first 20 games with 21 points, Giroux was set to produce much more than either of his previous two seasons. The hype train was massive and all were on board early in the season, but as of late it has slowed down, despite Giroux having 70 points in 75 games, good for 12th in the league. It seems we have already become accustomed to Claude producing the points, but most would be surprised to look at his totals. Although he has always had the quick release and soft hands to put points on the board, just this season Claude Giroux has become a pivotal part of a deep Philly team that has it's sights on the Stanley Cup.

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Corey Perry F, Anaheim Ducks

Corey Perry, the winger everyone hates to play against, but loves on their team, has started putting it all together. 5th in points and 1st in goals, the gritty, 212lb forward has turned it on in the most important situations, also leading the league in game winning goals. Maybe points aren't the biggest surprise, having tallied 70 points twice in his career, but the goals are undeniable. Corey Perry has a previous career high of 32 goals, and with 44 this year and 7 games left, he seems to be the front runner for the Richard trophy as Anaheim tries to hang on to one of the West's last two playoff spots.

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Keith Yandle D, Phoenix Coyotes

What can $1.2 Million buy you in today's NHL? Apparently a 60 point defenseman that can log 24 minutes every game. Keith Yandle may have the biggest steal of a contract in today's NHL, but expect that to change come contract signing time. Yandle is third in defenseman points behind only Nicklas Lidstrom and Lubomir Visnovsky with 58, and has more than any other Coyote. But he has quickly shown this season that he is more than a powerplay defenseman, Yandle has shown much improved defensive play from last season as well as throught the season. In his contract year(RFA), don't expect Phoenix to pay through the roof for Yandle, but Dustin Byfuglien's recent extension may be a slightly higher benchmark for Yandle.

Stay Tuned!

I posted this on HfBoards, but I guess not all of you come here directed from there. I just wanted to say that NO, this site is not dead.

I am a University student, and part being a student is of course, exams. Now is that wonderful time of year that I spend the majority of my time studying, hence my lack of articles recently.

However, before I took this unofficial break from writing, I had started 4 articles that you can look for in the week following Christmas. Keep checking back, and things will be back in full swing before you know it.

P.S. If you have any requests for an article, you can PM me on HfBoards(umwoz) or leave a comment below this post.

Thanks!

Prospect Profile: Oliver Ekman-Larsson

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Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Height: 6'2
Weight: 190 lbs
Pro Team: Phoenix Coyotes
Draft: 2009 - 6th Overall

Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a prospect that started out good, and never stopped impressing. Whether it was in the season leading up to his draft, his international play, or even his second season in the Allsvenskan(Sweden's top farm league), "OEL" has taken it up a notch at every level. Fans from Phoenix and all around the NHL are truly excited to see how the mobile Swedish blue-liner performs at the next level, and it appears that he may be an instrumental part of the Coyotes franchise for years to come.

Ekman-Larsson began his first season with Leksands IF ranked 8th among international skaters by central scouting, but a strong year would eventually improve that ranking. He finished off the season with 17 points in 39 games, but the stand out stat was his +/- which was an amazing +44(leading the entire league). During this season Oliver Ekman-Larsson showed off his multi-faceted game, quarterbacking the powerplay with a deadly shot from the point, while his neutral zone play and instincts were second to none. Many of those who watched his game weren't hesitant to call him the best defenseman on the team, even as a 17 year old.

His strong season led to Ekman-Larsson being a shoe in for Sweden's U18 team, where he continued to show off his well rounded game. What surprised a lot of spectators in Fargo, North Dakota was how his game didn't seem to make any drastic changes while moving to the smaller ice surface, although he admitted the increased difficulty. Ekman-Larsson continued to show off his outstanding skating ability, not just for a defenseman but for any player. He finished off the tournament with 2 goals and 6 assists in 6 games, second among defenseman to teammate Tim Erixon. This marked the biggest North American exposure of Ekman-Larsson to date, and everyone seemed to be surprised by not only his mobility and outstanding offensive skills, but also his sound positional defense and his great stick work in the defensive end.

His great overall year improved his ranking with central scouting from 8th to 4th among European skaters, although it was clear that OEL possessed game breaking potential. This potential was enough for the Coyotes to select him 6th overall, over higher ranked players like Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson. Ekman-Larsson immediately became the most touted prospect in the Coyotes system, and the only true, potential franchise defenseman in the system.

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Ekman-Larsson made the choice to stay in Sweden for another year in the Allsvenskan, a wise choice for a player that just turned 18 on July 17th, 2009. He increased his totals by 10 points despite missing games for the world juniors, making him the highest producing junior defenseman in the league. Although he has never been seen as an overly physical defenseman, Ekman-Larsson made it a point throughout the season to use his body more, and it clearly showed. In the midst of this season he left for Canada to play in the 2010 World Junior Championships. Ekman-Larsson had 5 points in just 6 games as the highest scoring defenseman on his team, yet again impressing with his excellent hockey sense and smooth passing, playing a prominent role in Sweden's road to the bronze medal.

Ekman-Larsson's next test was the 2010 World Championships in Germany. He played a consistent game throughout the tournament, finishing with 3 points(third amongst defenseman on his team) and was even named Sweden's best player in their game against Norway. Sweden would eventually finish with a bronze medal, defeating Germany 3-1. Only one day after his bronze medal game, it was announced that Ekman-Larsson was signed to a 3 year entry level contract, with an annual cap hit of $1.75 million.

The next offseason was an important one for OEL, despite improvements in in his physical game, critics still said it wasn't at a high enough level. Ekman-Larsson took a step towards silencing them, showing up to camp at 190lbs, up from 171 that he played at in Sweden. He kept it quite simple in pre-season, and still looked like was adjusting to the different style of game, but did enough to make the Coyotes out of camp.

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Ekman-Larsson has been playing around 15 even strength minutes per game with the Coyotes, around 1:20 on the power play, and has looked promising so far. He has had his share of rookie mistakes but has been the type of player you certainly notice out on the ice. His skating is already at an NHL level, and his decision making for the most part has been good. He has 4 points in his 15 games in Phoenix, but has been fairly tentative, trying not to make too many mistakes as he transitions to the North American game. Ekman-Larsson has also spent 7 games with San Antonio of the AHL, where he has 6 points in 7 games, and has opened up his game quite a bit more against the lower competition.

As with any international defensemen(or for that matter, any international skater), you can expect a transition period with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, although I wouldn't expect much of one with this Swedish defenseman. One of the main transitions coming over to North America is the speed of the game, and the speed of the decisions you must make because of that. With such a high hockey IQ, great skating ability, and equally good decision making, struggles should be minimal for OEL. So far his game has been sound, and his mobility and stick work have shown, once he gets used to the NHL, you can expect improvement with every game.

There is no doubt that Ekman-Larsson has all the tools to be a franchise defenseman. He can be a major threat in the offensive zone, and with time, his already good defensive game will only improve. This is the type of prospect I would keep an eye on, because it appears that Oliver Ekman-Larsson will be a very special player in the NHL for years to come.



Sources(Although much is personal knowledge)
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/205/IHM2050SWE_83_6_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/230/IHM230000_85K_15_0.pdf
http://www.eliteprospects.com/
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/
http://www.hockeydb.com
 

20 Games In: Around the NHL

Who's Streaking?

Philadelphia Flyers (15-6-2)
Philadelphia has started off the season at a blazing pace, they have been one of the most dominant teams to start off the season, and don't think this is a fluke. The Flyers are 2nd in the league in goal scoring with 3.5 per game and 6th in the league on defense with just 2.5 goals against per game.

A major factor to why they have been so dominant is the emergence of Claude Giroux and Sergei Bobrovsky. Giroux has scored at a rate of 1 point per game with 23 in 23 games, looking to easily eclipse his career high of 47 points. Bobrovsky has been outstanding in his rookie year, playing 17 games with an impressive 12 wins, and sitting in the top 10 for both save percentage and goals against average.

Detroit Red Wings (13-4-2)
Those of us who watch hockey on a year to year basis, know that Detroit tends to always wind up in the playoffs. Regardless of their start, which this year has been great, they tend to be there at the end. Luckily for us, they aren't looking to take the suspenseful route this year. Don't be surprised if they hold down the top spot in the West for quite some time.

Detroit has once again been an offensive powerhouse, totaling 3.53 Goals per game(2nd in the league), much due to Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Nicklas Lidstrom all scoring over a point per game pace. However, in typical Detroit fashion, secondary scoring is coming from everywhere you look.

Washington Capitals (15-6-2)
It's not very often that you can say a player is having a "down year" when they are third in the league in points, but there may be no other way to describe Alex Ovechkin's season to date. This becomes much less of a problem when you also have the NHL's 5th and 11th leading scorers(Semin, Backstrom). Washington's "big three" are producing better than they ever have.

Away from the usual suspects, Washington is seeing some great play from rookie standout John Carlson, who sits second to Mike Green on the Capitals for ice time. Carlson is a great two way defenseman who is complemented nicely by Green, who has made some strides in his defensive zone play. Goaltending has been a slight issue for the Caps, as rookie Braden Holtby has struggled when backing up Michael Neuvirth(also a rookie). With Semyon Varlamov back in action and Neuvirth now out, Washington is due for some stability at the position, which they should get once Neuvirth returns shortly.



Who's Slumping?


New York Islanders (4-12-5)
It's hard to peg down one reason why the Islanders have been this bad, but the explanation is, it has been way more than one thing. Their last win came on October 21st against Tampa Bay, and frustration is reaching a high in New York. Thought to be due for a breakout year, Josh Bailey has been sent down to Bridgeport. After a solid start Bailey has really struggled to get his offensive game going. The Islanders are 2nd to last in Goals Per Game as well as Goals Against Per Game, and have had issues all over the ice. Another notable stat to look at, is that the Islanders have not won a single game this season when trailing after the 1st period. Although I wouldn't expect them to go winless for this long of a period again this season, don't look for the Islanders anywhere but the golf course come spring time.

New Jersey Devils (7-13-2)
Not straying too far from the same region, the Devils have surprisingly been one of the leagues worst teams this year. Off of the heels of Kovalchuk's 100 Million Dollar contract, expectations were high, if New Jersey's always solid defense could finally get elite level scoring, what reason was there to expect a poor record? Unfortunately things haven't worked too well on either side of ice for New Jersey, they sit 20th in Goals Against, and dead last in Goals For. It has become a season full of question marks for the Devils, Will Kovalchuk turn it around? How long will Parise really be out? and most importantly, Can either of those players help turn around this horrid start?

Edmonton Oilers (5-11-4)
Finally, the least surprising addition to this category, yet again, the Oilers are struggling. Although it seems that this team's young stars are starting to gel, it is blatantly clear that they are a ways off from a complete rebuild. Look for another year in the basement for this team, and another high draft pick. As you may expect from a young team, the Oilers are dead last in Goals Against at an abysmal 3.95, which can largely be attributed to their awful 67.9% penalty kill. While you could chalk this up as part of the rebuild, it may be of concern that the rebuild, as of now, doesn't contain any true standout defenseman. Adam Larsson may already be in the Edmonton Oilers future plans.

Prospect Profile: Jeff Skinner

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Jeff Skinner
Height: 5'10
Weight: 193lbs
Current Team: Carolina Hurricanes
Draft: 2010 - 7th Overall

After being drafted 7th overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft by the Carolina Hurricanes, fans were ecstatic about Jeff Skinner, and in retrospect, rightfully so. It seemed that Carolina had finally found it's elite goal scoring presence to go with franchise center Eric Staal. However, not many truly expected him to stick with the Hurricanes, much less put up points at the level he has. In his very young career Skinner has played some great hockey, leading all rookies in points and proving himself worthy of such a high selection.

Jeff Skinner started his major junior career in 2008 with the Kitchener Rangers, being selected 20th in the OHL Bantam Draft. Skinner made an immediate impact at this level, leading the Rangers in goals scored in his rookie season, reaching a total of 51 points in 63 games. However it was his following season in which he truly "broke out", scoring 50 goals(21 on the powerplay) and totaling 90 points in 64 games, leading a much improved Kitchener team to the OHL playoffs. In the playoffs Skinner stepped up his game to yet another level, scoring 20 goals in 20 games and adding 13 assists. Kitchener would take eventual Memorial Cup Champion Windsor to seven games and come up just short. Skinner was subsequently invited to play for Team Orr in the 2010 CHL Top Prospects Game in which he was named player of the game with a goal and an assist.

Leading up to the 2010 NHL Entry Draft in Los Angeles, Jeff Skinner was an interesting prospect. His nose for the net was undeniable, everyone was well aware that he could score goals in bunches. It also seemed as if Skinner played his best hockey when it truly mattered, but his rating by central scouting was not very indicative of this. However questions were raised about his skating, although he was a former high level figure skater it was unknown whether his skating ability would be sufficient at the NHL level. Not concerned by the doubts, the Carolina Hurricanes chose Jeff Skinner 7th overall, despite players such as Cam Fowler and Brandon Gormley(Ranked 5th and 6th respectively) still on the board. Although there was a perceived need for a legit goal scoring threat to compliment Eric Staal, some people still thought that Carolina should focus on it's defense after being one of the 5 worst teams in the NHL in goals against per game. However, the late season emergence of Skinner was enough to sell Jim Rutherford on his abilities.

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Skinner was seen by many as a "Boom/Bust" type of prospect, either his game would translate well, and he may be a goal scoring star in this league, or his type of play would not translate at all, and another struggling team may have wasted an early pick. With a rep as a small forward early in his career, Skinner showed up to camp weighing 193lbs skating as fluid as ever, and hopes for him to stay in Carolina were way up. In late September he was signed to his entry-level contract, three years for a grand total of $2.7 Million. It was in training camp and preseason that fans got to see him at the NHL level, and he was impressively strong on the ice, and very hard to push off the puck, a great asset for a player that many thought to be an unimpressive skater.

It didn't take long for Skinner to start producing, in just his second NHL game on October 8th, he notched his first assist, and scored the game winning shootout goal against the Minnesota Wild, making him the 3rd youngest player to score in the shootout. Shortly after his debut, the Hurricanes announced that Skinner would be staying the season in Carolina, much to the delight of fans. This marked the start of a 14 game tear, in which he totaled 15 points, pulling away from all other rookies. Skinner has already seen some top line duty with Eric Staal, however he has spent the majority of his season playing second line minutes. Since his 14 game break out, he has just one point in 5 games, cooling off, but still playing strong hockey. As stated in my Early Season Calder Watch if Skinner can produce close to his early pace, he is a lock for a Calder Nomination. It is of course, not realistic to expect a point per game, but if he continues on his season pace toward 65 points, he should not only be a lock for a nomination, but close to a sure thing to win it.

With a lot of hockey left to play in 2010-2011, it is uncertain if Jeff Skinner will hold his pace, but Carolina fans have a huge upside to be excited about. Even at the highest level, Skinner has a nac for creating plays and finding the net despite being the youngest player currently playing in the NHL. His ceiling is extremely high, he projects as a 35-50 goal scorer who can keep plays alive and distribute the puck fairly well. Only time will tell, but it appears that the Carolina Hurricanes have a very special player on their hands.

Early Season Calder Watch 2010-2011

So here we are, about a quarter of the way through this young NHL season. We have seen our share of surprises already this season, many of them coming from the strong rookie class of 2010-2011. Here's a look at the early favorites for the Calder Trophy.

1. Jeff Skinner F, Carolina Hurricanes

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Many expected Jeff Skinner to be playing in Kitchener this season, so when it was announced that he would be sticking with Carolina, more than a few heads were turned. Skinner's performance this season has surprised everyone, putting up 15 points in 19 games to date, and even getting some top line minutes with Eric Staal, showing off just how skilled he is. If Jeff Skinner does happen to hold his early season pace, he's a shoe-in for a Calder nomination.

2. Logan Couture F, San Jose Sharks

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Unlike Skinner, Logan Couture was expected to do big things this season. Playing 25 regular season games last year(1 short of losing his Calder eligibility), Couture scored 5 goals, assisting on 4 more, and also scored 4 goals in 15 post season games. Although those aren't spectacular stats, Couture brings more than just an offensive presence, he is very defensively sound at all areas of the ice. High hopes have translated into strong performances for Couture, tallying 12 points in his first 18 games. Due to Couture's reliable all around play, he has even stepped up to the top line in the absence of Joe Thornton, and with Thornton in the lineup, he has taken a permanent role in the top 6, supplanting Devin Setoguchi.

3. Sergei Bobrovsky G, Philadelphia Flyers

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To put it bluntly, Sergei Bobrovsky didn't have a name before this season. Outside of Philadelphia, very few people had even heard of the Russian goaltender. Bobrovsky made himself known in a hurry, starting the season with 2 wins and 2 losses, followed by a span of 10 games in which he did not have a regulation loss, going 9-0-1. Bobrovsky has posted a .925 save percentage and a 2.29 goals against average, good for 9th and 10th in the entire league(although those stats are slightly skewed by a wild game vs. Tampa Bay on Thursday). Although it is very hard for a goaltender to win the Calder, it seems with 11 wins in just 16 games, Bobrovsky is aiming to do just that.

4. Jordan Eberle F, Edmonton Oilers

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Jordan Eberle was a Canadian hockey hero before he ever put on an Oilers Jersey, but with high end prospects Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi in town, Eberle was not expected to be the main attraction in Edmonton. Eberle has outperformed both Hall and Paajarvi in his first 18 games, and has done so in spectacular fashion. In his young NHL career Eberle already has a number of highlight reel goals, but flair aside his 12 points in 18 games is good for 3rd on his team and has even earned him some top line minutes.

5. Tyler Ennis F, Buffalo Sabres

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Much in the same way as Jordan Eberle, Tyler Ennis has been proving skeptics wrong ever since juniors. Comments about his size have time and time again been proven wrong. Ennis first came into the NHL late last season, notching 9 points in 10 regular season games. Ennis went on to be the Sabres top forward in a short playoff stint against Boston. This year, Ennis has 11 points in his first 21 games, and his ability to keep plays alive with his stick skills have made him yet another rookie spending some minutes on the top line.

Honorable Mention: Michael Neuvirth, PK Subban, John Carlson